How they were assessed
Every check the model ran, and what it found. A trader who fails one of these is kept in the corpus and off the board.
✓D-193 resolved, clustered n_eff 23.5
✓D-2last entry 0.3d ago
✓D-3100.0% of decayed PnL from last 365d; largest gain 13d old
✓D-4top gain is 10.8% of gross gains
✓D-593 markets, 87 events, biggest 6.7% of stake
✓D-5b93 resolved positions (cap 1000)
✓D-6classified FAVOURITE_BUYER
✓D-70.0% in sub-minute round trips (partial check — same-wallet only)
✓D-8median stake $200, $150027 deployed in 365d
✓D-9ROI 3.0%; no out-of-sample record yet
✓D-10dead positions net $-2114 against $14219 gross gains
✓D-111.8% of stake in markets under $50,000 volume
Provisional: we have not tracked this trader long enough to have any out-of-sample record yet.
$1.1KREDEEM
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-08-04?
4h agoEntry: 0.0¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$1.5KREDEEM
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-08-04?
5h agoEntry: 0.0¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$804BUY Yes
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-08-04?
6h agoEntry: 90.0¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$101BUY Yes
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-08-04?
6h agoEntry: 88.0¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$101BUY Yes
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-08-04?
6h agoEntry: 88.0¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$1.0KBUY Yes
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-08-04?
8h agoEntry: 65.5¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$361REDEEM
Los Angeles Sparks vs. PortlandFire
2d agoEntry: 0.0¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$303BUY Los Angeles Sparks
Los Angeles Sparks vs. PortlandFire
2d agoEntry: 83.0¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$22SELL PortlandFire
Los Angeles Sparks vs. PortlandFire
2d agoEntry: 17.0¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$102REDEEM
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
2d agoEntry: 0.0¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$101BUY PortlandFire
Los Angeles Sparks vs. PortlandFire
2d agoEntry: 74.3¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$100BUY Houston Astros
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
2d agoEntry: 98.0¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$157SELL No
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
2d agoEntry: 72.0¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$2.2KREDEEM
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-08-01?
3d agoEntry: 0.0¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$1.1KREDEEM
Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?
3d agoEntry: 0.0¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$1.0KBUY Yes
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-08-01?
3d agoEntry: 93.5¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$1.0KBUY Yes
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-08-01?
3d agoEntry: 88.0¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$903BUY Yes
Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?
3d agoEntry: 94.3¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$100BUY Yes
Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?
3d agoEntry: 90.6¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades
$3.2KREDEEM
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-08-01?
3d agoEntry: 0.0¢
HKMASACAPITALWR: 72%ROI: +3%188 trades