Shark Radar

conotocaurius

SharpModerateActive 4d ago

Cleared every disqualifier and matched no exclusionary pattern.

ROI on money risked

+5%

Record

169W / 87L

Win rate vs break-even

66%-10%

Volume

$500.8K

Since we listed them

–

Category

OTHER
View on Polymarket ↗

How they were assessed

Every check the model ran, and what it found. A trader who fails one of these is kept in the corpus and off the board.

✓D-1256 resolved, clustered n_eff 31.1
✓D-2last entry 0.0d ago
✓D-3100.0% of decayed PnL from last 365d; largest gain 39d old
✓D-4top gain is 16.4% of gross gains
✓D-5247 markets, 149 events, biggest 9.1% of stake
✓D-5b256 resolved positions (cap 1000)
✓D-6classified UNCLASSIFIED
✓D-70.0% in sub-minute round trips (partial check — same-wallet only)
✓D-8median stake $451, $488354 deployed in 365d
✓D-9ROI 4.5%; no out-of-sample record yet
✓D-10dead positions net $0 against $60023 gross gains
✓D-1124.0% of stake in markets under $50,000 volume

Provisional: we have not tracked this trader long enough to have any out-of-sample record yet.

Recent Trades

$136SELL Yes

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?

1d agoEntry: 29.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗
$24SELL No

Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 10% and 20%?

1d agoEntry: 97.9¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗
$2REWARD

1d agoEntry: 0.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗
$5SELL Yes

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?

1d agoEntry: 29.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗
$29SELL Yes

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?

1d agoEntry: 29.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗
$3SELL Yes

Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more?

1d agoEntry: 91.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗
$18SELL Yes

Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more?

1d agoEntry: 91.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗
$0SELL Yes

Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more?

1d agoEntry: 91.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗
$2REWARD

2d agoEntry: 0.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗
$2SELL No

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?

2d agoEntry: 80.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗
$826BUY No

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?

2d agoEntry: 87.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗
$51SELL Yes

Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more?

3d agoEntry: 92.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗
$114BUY No

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?

3d agoEntry: 80.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗
$865SELL No

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

3d agoEntry: 92.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗
$280SELL No

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

3d agoEntry: 91.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗
$5SELL No

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

4d agoEntry: 91.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗
$9BUY No

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?

4d agoEntry: 81.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗
$458SELL No

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

4d agoEntry: 91.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗
$1SELL No

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

4d agoEntry: 91.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗
$4SELL No

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

4d agoEntry: 91.0¢
conotocauriusWR: 66%ROI: +5%4880 trades
Trader ↗Market ↗

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