OutcomeUnclear

SharpModerateActive 3d ago

Cleared every disqualifier and matched no exclusionary pattern.

ROI on money risked

+8%

Record

175W / 74L

Win rate vs break-even

70%-8%

Volume

$129.4K

Since we listed them

–

Category

OTHER

View on Polymarket ↗

How they were assessed

Every check the model ran, and what it found. A trader who fails one of these is kept in the corpus and off the board.

✓D-1249 resolved, clustered n_eff 61.4

✓D-2last entry -0.0d ago

✓D-3102.3% of decayed PnL from last 365d; largest gain 153d old

✓D-4top gain is 16.1% of gross gains

✓D-5236 markets, 166 events, biggest 4.5% of stake

✓D-5b249 resolved positions (cap 1000)

✓D-6classified UNCLASSIFIED

✓D-70.0% in sub-minute round trips (partial check — same-wallet only)

✓D-8median stake $300, $132006 deployed in 365d

✓D-9ROI 7.6% vs 5.0% floor; no out-of-sample record yet

✓D-10dead positions net $-6420 against $23694 gross gains

✓D-1113.6% of stake in markets under $50,000 volume

Provisional: we have not tracked this trader long enough to have any out-of-sample record yet.

Recent Trades

$134BUY Yes

Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?

2d agoEntry: 44.6¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$36BUY Yes

Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?

2d agoEntry: 44.9¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$9BUY Yes

Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?

2d agoEntry: 44.9¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$6BUY Yes

Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?

2d agoEntry: 42.5¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$247BUY Yes

Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?

2d agoEntry: 42.5¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$2BUY Yes

Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?

2d agoEntry: 38.0¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$465SELL Yes

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

3d agoEntry: 93.0¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$2.0KSELL No

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?

3d agoEntry: 99.9¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$499SELL Yes

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?

3d agoEntry: 99.9¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$129BUY Yes

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?

3d agoEntry: 78.0¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$4BUY Yes

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?

3d agoEntry: 78.0¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$21BUY Yes

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?

3d agoEntry: 78.0¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$35BUY Yes

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?

3d agoEntry: 78.0¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$5BUY Yes

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?

3d agoEntry: 76.0¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$1SELL No

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?

3d agoEntry: 79.9¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$205BUY Yes

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?

3d agoEntry: 82.0¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$355SELL Yes

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

3d agoEntry: 71.0¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$136BUY No

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?

3d agoEntry: 69.8¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$53BUY No

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?

3d agoEntry: 69.8¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$2BUY No

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?

3d agoEntry: 63.1¢

OutcomeUnclearWR: 70%ROI: +8%1906 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

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