How they were assessed
Every check the model ran, and what it found. A trader who fails one of these is kept in the corpus and off the board.
✓D-1412 resolved, clustered n_eff 15.2
✓D-2last entry 14.8d ago
✓D-3100.0% of decayed PnL from last 365d; largest gain 48d old
✓D-4top gain is 13.1% of gross gains
✓D-5377 markets, 168 events, biggest 9.0% of stake
✓D-5b412 resolved positions (cap 1000)
✓D-6classified UNCLASSIFIED
✓D-71.9% in sub-minute round trips (partial check — same-wallet only)
✓D-8median stake $295, $690498 deployed in 365d
✓D-9ROI 28.7% vs 5.0% floor; no out-of-sample record yet
✓D-10dead positions net $-14927 against $260468 gross gains
✓D-1110.5% of stake in markets under $50,000 volume
Provisional: we have not tracked this trader long enough to have any out-of-sample record yet.
$200REDEEM
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
11h agoEntry: 0.0¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$1.1KREDEEM
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?
16d agoEntry: 0.0¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$1.3KSELL Yes
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
17d agoEntry: 16.0¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$418SELL Yes
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
17d agoEntry: 16.0¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$99SELL Yes
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
18d agoEntry: 17.0¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$0YIELD
21d agoEntry: 0.0¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$63SELL Yes
US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?
21d agoEntry: 12.7¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$47BUY Yes
US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?
22d agoEntry: 5.7¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$129BUY Yes
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?
22d agoEntry: 15.0¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$55BUY Yes
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?
22d agoEntry: 14.0¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$0YIELD
22d agoEntry: 0.0¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$2REWARD
22d agoEntry: 0.0¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$150BUY Yes
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
22d agoEntry: 19.9¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$75BUY Yes
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
22d agoEntry: 7.0¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$0YIELD
23d agoEntry: 0.0¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$0YIELD
24d agoEntry: 0.0¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$0YIELD
25d agoEntry: 0.0¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$0YIELD
26d agoEntry: 0.0¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$23TAKER_REBATE
26d agoEntry: 0.0¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades
$2SELL No
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
27d agoEntry: 40.0¢
23449WR: 45%ROI: +29%5883 trades