smallf

SharpModerateActive today

Cleared every disqualifier and matched no exclusionary pattern.

ROI on money risked

+22%

Record

147W / 114L

Win rate vs break-even

56%-9%

Volume

$711.7K

Since we listed them

–

Category

OTHER

View on Polymarket ↗

How they were assessed

Every check the model ran, and what it found. A trader who fails one of these is kept in the corpus and off the board.

✓D-1261 resolved, clustered n_eff 22.0

✓D-2last entry 0.0d ago

✓D-3100.6% of decayed PnL from last 365d; largest gain 25d old

✓D-4top gain is 37.7% of gross gains

✓D-5238 markets, 113 events, biggest 15.5% of stake

✓D-5b261 resolved positions (cap 1000)

✓D-6classified UNCLASSIFIED

✓D-70.0% in sub-minute round trips (partial check — same-wallet only)

✓D-8median stake $428, $681475 deployed in 365d

✓D-9ROI 21.8% vs 5.0% floor; no out-of-sample record yet

✓D-10dead positions net $-84575 against $248263 gross gains

✓D-1114.0% of stake in markets under $50,000 volume

Provisional: we have not tracked this trader long enough to have any out-of-sample record yet.

Recent Trades

$0BUY Yes

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

23m agoEntry: 87.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$333BUY No

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

50m agoEntry: 93.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$37BUY No

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

55m agoEntry: 93.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$180BUY Yes

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

59m agoEntry: 70.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$45BUY No

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

1h agoEntry: 93.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$2BUY No

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

1h agoEntry: 93.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$1.3KBUY No

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

1h agoEntry: 93.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$5BUY No

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

1h agoEntry: 93.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$13BUY No

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

1h agoEntry: 93.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$14BUY No

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

1h agoEntry: 93.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$284BUY No

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

1h agoEntry: 93.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$2.2KBUY No

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

1h agoEntry: 93.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$367BUY No

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

2h agoEntry: 93.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$180BUY Yes

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

2h agoEntry: 70.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$20.0KMERGE

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

2h agoEntry: 0.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$26BUY Yes

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

4h agoEntry: 76.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$1.2KBUY Yes

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

4h agoEntry: 86.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$909BUY Yes

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

4h agoEntry: 86.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$1.8KBUY Yes

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

4h agoEntry: 90.0¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

$1.6KBUY Yes

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

4h agoEntry: 93.1¢

smallfWR: 56%ROI: +22%3325 trades

Trader ↗Market ↗

Get an alert when this trader bets big

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